Analyse technique hebdomadaire EUR/USD 14-18 Janvier 2013

L'EUR / USD est maintenant au même niveau qu'il était en avril 2011. La semaine dernière, l'euro était en hausse de 2%.

Après la conférence européenne de M. Mario Draghi il a fait une déclaration qu'il voit des signes de stabilisation économique de la zone euro, après les déclarations de la volatilité a augmenté brusquement et la paire EUR / USD a gangé plus de 170 pips. Il y a eu aussi des adjudications d'obligations postives en Espagne et en Italie.

Une journée proche du dessus de 1,3310 a confirmé la tendance haussière à moyen actuel. De perpsective l'analyse technique, nous voyons clairement un biais haussier si l'Euro est en mesure de maintenir son momentum.

Même si nous avons un biais haussier clair nous ne recommandons pas des stops profonds en ce moment beaucoup au-dessous de 1,333 pour des speculations à court terme. Car tout dépend du momentum.  J'ai attendu le début de la session de Londres dans le but de publier cette analyse hebdomadaire.


Malgré le fait que l'analyse technique est le domaine de ce que vous voyez et non sur ce que vous pensez cependant je conseille la prudence extrême en ce moment. Je pense qu'une correction à court terme est due à partir de ces niveaux et que le marché ne peut pas maintenir son élan facilement. Je vois une éventuelle correction vers 1,30. De ce point de vue  je peux recommander soit un stop très court juste en dessous de 1.320 en pariant pour augmentation du momentun soit d'un arrêt  plus profond en dessous de 1,30.

Résistance principale hebdomadaire 1,35

Principal soutien hebdomadaire 1,322, 1,30

New system will be developped

I am thinking very seriously about a new system that will try to catch the Forex macro trends.
The instruments in this blog are updated and their updated version would be soon released.
More on those ideas is here:

New project

This project was quite successful. The system is a good and robust trend following system. Not exactly, but it has a nice feature. It works when there are strong mono-wave impulses even if they are not part of a trend in the sense of the traditional technical analysis.

This project was more than a year of work.

You can join my social net community where we can discuss.

http://beathespread.com/

Fractal dimension Trend Following System

In this post I will share more on the Fractal Dimension Trend Following System.

You can see a shot of this system on the 1 h time frame. In fact I do not recommend to go lower.

You need to make a proper optimization of the system: the JJMA is set to 14: It is recommended to go from 6 to 14.

This is the simplest form of use of those indicators.

Any consistent modern system trading need to have at least three sub-systems: It is important to have different systems from different market conditions: Trend following system: Range system and Break - out system.

But the heart is to have an instrument to differentiate between those conditions. This is not easy and this is called experience. What I try is to use a mathematical formula giving us more insight of the problem. So this is not a traditional trend following system in fact it is an upgrade to a traditional system.

Signals:

It is as simple as it can be.

Blue dot: buy signal: the signal is valid only at the end of the bar

Magenta dot: sell signal: the signal is valid only at the end of the bar

Price action reading:

Yes this system has a price action reading:

Blue Bar: uptrend bar

Red Bar: downtrend bar

Green Bar: range bar

-It is a good idea to have a confirmation between the price action and the signal generation.

-If a trend is established you can enter or add when the proper price action bar is identified.

Measure of the Cyclic component:

This is interpreted as regular oscillator. We have a mod version of the Polarized fractal efficiency indicator and a Normalized version of Singular Spectrum Analysis indicator.

This folks is the best I found for cycle extraction. Needless to say it is a very good idea to have a conformity from the cyclic component and the trend component. From time to time arrows will appear from the SSA indicator, treat them as alerts, this is not a trade signal.

Measure of the Trend component:

This is an equivalent of the ADX. But it is far more reactive. When the faster ADX goes to its maximum it reveals a correction.

Measure of the Fractal Dimension:

Here it is the real deal.

In fact all the mentioned available instruments are to measure the actual state of the market. Nothing more and nothing less. It is important to measure the actual conditions of the market.

The fractal dimension gives us a probability that what we have measure will continue in the future.

If the fractal dimension is in the blue zone: we have a greater probability that the movement will reverse.

If the fractal dimension is in the red zone: we have a greater probability that the movement will continue.

In fact the probabilities are not great but this is something concrete. So what is important if the probability increases or decreases.

I have found that the best use of this system is done on 1 h, or more. Below that level it is far more complicated.

3 rules:

When we have a FGDI in red both in the 15 m and 30 m time frame this is a special place. Use the signals as they are given follow the signals.

When we have the inversed conditions: do not trade a trade following system or do not trade at all.

When we have the 15, 30, or 1 h, the FGDI at the level of 1.5. That means we are at fifty fifty situation.

The Hurst difference. Measure a peak of the change of the fractal dimension of the price. When we have a peak this is a signal that something important is going to happaen. If that is observed in a conjunction with a transition of FGDI from the red to the blue zone this is an indication of a break - out market condition.

Copyright:

All rights are reserved for the technical indicators distributed.

The fact that the files from this system are freely distributed and I found them on internet does not mean that its components are free of copyright. All of the indicators in this system are freely available with their own copyrights. Most of them are a trial for reverse engineering of some very famous systems. For this reason I will upload the source code files wherein you will find the proper copyright information. This effort is done only to save you many hours on internet search.

Any commercial exploitation and distribution of this system is prohibited because it will violate the copyright of its owners.

The ideas of the Fractal Dimension Trend Following System can be realized with almost any technical indicator, even manually with the proper expertise. The fact that I have included those available indicators and systems is because they are very popular and easy to use.

Installation Note:

You can download here the necessary files:

http://www.mediafire.com/file/od11kos81vbhzt7/experts2.rar

Install all the files from the folder in the experts folder of Metatrader

Install the file from include folder in the include folder of Metatrader

Install the file from library folder in the library folder of Metatrader

Install the template file into the template folder of Metatrader

There are some files that are not included in the template. You can use them if you wish.

October

Unfortunately I did not take position this month. Otherwise I would write the position in the blog. However the purpose of this post is to show some of my trend following strategies.
It is funny everything on this screen shot is free as freely available on the net.

OK there are tho shots one is on the daily chart and another on the 4 h time chart.
How to interpret. It is fairly easy.

The dots are the entry points blue for buy and magenta for sell.

The line can be above or below the price. This is a stop loss level.

This is a modification of the Wilder volatility system (one of the best trend following systems ever, ask why it is not so popular). The modification consists in the smoothing by an innovative digital filters. The idea is freely available and elaborated by Russian hackers. For me this is one of the most advanced trend following strategies available outperforming even the famous able trend.

But this is not all. Every trend following strategy needs a trend filter. Nothing original. Yes but this is different. Traditionally the ADX is used do distinguish between trend and range environments. What we have here is a better version of the ADX. What is better?
This indicator is far more reactive than the ADX. Especially for the end of the trend, when it reverses after the peak this means that we have a correction. That is why I use two on the same window one is more reactive and one is less reactive. One measures the little bursts and trends and the other the bigger trend.

And that is not enough. We have the fractal dimension index. I can write a lot about it. But this indicator is also freely available. In a nutshell on this bigger times frames it can be analyzed as follows.

When we are in a red zone: we have a bigger probability than the next movement will be in the same direction (the right term is to say that the movement is persistent).

When we are in a blue zone: we have a bigger probability than the next movement will be in the opposite direction (the right term is to say that the movement is antipersistent).

This indicator estimates the fractal dimension of the time series. The times series in the market have a fractal dimension. I know folks this becomes a little complicated. So look at he price the more linear it is the more it is closer to the 1 (one dimension). The more jagged the more it is closer to 2 (tho dimension), in fact the price can never be 2 dimensional because it cannot close itself.

The medium line is 1.5. This is the fractal dimension of the Brownian motion. The probability is 50 % for the next movement to be in either up and down.

In fact it has been mathematically proven that the time series in the Forex market have the so called long term memory. That means that what happens today and what has happened on the past affects the future in a non linear way and complex way.

So a further enhancement of this indicator is the Hurst difference indicator. This indicator has been developed by a friend of mine and is also free (in the modern sens of face book of course).
I am particularly happy that I have contributed to the discussions that have led to the discovery of this indicator. So this is a very particular indicator. This is seismic meter of the market.
So when you see a peak you have to know that something important is happening or is about to happen that will affect the market. Often it is a confirmation of a break-out (in fact a valid break out is accompanied by a transition from the blue dimension to the red dimension: I call it a fractal break-out and this has nothing to do with the fractals of Bill Williams). This pattern is a new and has been documented for the first time some years ago in the forum TSD (where you can find most of the indicators).

Finally we have an advanced oscillator. In fact I use two indicators in one window:
One is a modified polarized fractal efficiency PFE. The other is really the best oscillator ever (in fact not a true oscillator) this is a SSA (singular spectrum analyses tuned to extract the oscillatory component of the time series). And it is interpreted as a regular oscillator in the trend following strategies. We buy or sell in the direction of the trend only.

We have a Bollinger band but they are not really necessary in the big time frames. And finally there is a very fast digital filter changing color. This one particularly is not free its name is gauss filter and it is available in the Elite section of the forum TSD. But there are some other indicators that do the same job sometimes even better.

End of month

The long position opened from the beginning of the month 1.2883
is closed at 1.3540.

It makes 657 pips.
We used 0.01 lots: that makes 65.7 USD

The losses were 16.60 USD

The total gain for the month is 49 USD.

Not bad for the microhedge fund. We had 100 USD and now we have 149 USD. The idea is to
get out of the account the wins of the month.

So 49 USD in the pocket let's buy some beer.
Cheers.

First loss

The short position has been closed at 1.2883.

The incurred loss is 16.60 $.

The position was not managed well because it was positive for a certain amount of time.

I open a long position from the same level.