Thursday 21 October 2010

Fractal dimension Trend Following System





In this post I will share more on the Fractal Dimension Trend Following System.

You can see a shot of this system on the 1 h time frame. In fact I do not recommend to go lower.
You need to make a proper optimization of the system: the JJMA is set to 14: It is recommended to go from 6 to 14.

This is the simplest form of use of those indicators.

Any consistent modern system trading need to have at least three sub-systems: It is important to have different systems from different market conditions: Trend following system: Range system and Break - out system.

But the heart is to have an instrument to differentiate between those conditions. This is not easy and this is called experience. What I try is to use a mathematical formula giving us more insight of the problem. So this is not a traditional trend following system in fact it is an upgrade to a traditional system.

Signals:
It is as simple as it can be.
Blue dot: buy signal: the signal is valid only at the end of the bar
Magenta dot: sell signal: the signal is valid only at the end of the bar

Price action reading:
Yes this system has a price action reading:
Blue Bar: uptrend bar
Red Bar: downtrend bar
Green Bar: range bar

-It is a good idea to have a confirmation between the price action and the signal generation.
-If a trend is established you can enter or add when the proper price action bar is identified.

Measure of the Cyclic component:
This is interpreted as regular oscillator. We have a mod version of the Polarized fractal efficiency indicator and a Normalized version of Singular Spectrum Analysis indicator.
This folks is the best I found for cycle extraction. Needless to say it is a very good idea to have a conformity from the cyclic component and the trend component. From time to time arrows will appear from the SSA indicator, treat them as alerts, this is not a trade signal.

Measure of the Trend component:
This is an equivalent of the ADX. But it is far more reactive. When the faster ADX goes to its maximum it reveals a correction.

Measure of the Fractal Dimension:

Here it is the real deal.

In fact all the mentioned available instruments are to measure the actual state of the market. Nothing more and nothing less. It is important to measure the actual conditions of the market.

The fractal dimension gives us a probability that what we have measure will continue in the future.

If the fractal dimension is in the blue zone: we have a greater probability that the movement will reverse.

If the fractal dimension is in the red zone: we have a greater probability that the movement will continue.

In fact the probabilities are not great but this is something concrete. So what is important if the probability increases or decreases.

I have found that the best use of this system is done on 1 h, or more. Below that level it is far more complicated.

3 rules:

When we have a FGDI in red both in the 15 m and 30 m time frame this is a special place. Use the signals as they are given follow the signals.

When we have the inversed conditions: do not trade a trade following system or do not trade at all.

When we have the 15, 30, or 1 h, the FGDI at the level of 1.5. That means we are at fifty fifty situation.

The Hurst difference. Measure a peak of the change of the fractal dimension of the price. When we have a peak this is a signal that something important is going to happaen. If that is observed in a conjunction with a transition of FGDI from the red to the blue zone this is an indication of a break - out market condition.


Copyright:

All rights are reserved for the technical indicators distributed.
The fact that the files from this system are freely distributed and I found them on internet does not mean that its components are free of copyright. All of the indicators in this system are freely available with their own copyrights. Most of them are a trial for reverse engineering of some very famous systems. For this reason I will upload the source code files wherein you will find the proper copyright information. This effort is done only to save you many hours on internet search.

Any commercial exploitation and distribution of this system is prohibited because it will violate the copyright of its owners.

The ideas of the Fractal Dimension Trend Following System can be realized with almost any technical indicator, even manually with the proper expertise. The fact that I have included those available indicators and systems is because they are very popular and easy to use.


Installation Note:
You can download here the necessary files:

Install all the files from the folder in the experts folder of Metatrader
Install the file from include folder in the include folder of Metatrader
Install the file from library folder in the library folder of Metatrader
Install the template file into the template folder of Metatrader

There are some files that are not included in the template. You can use them if you wish.

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