October

Unfortunately I did not take position this month. Otherwise I would write the position in the blog. However the purpose of this post is to show some of my trend following strategies.
It is funny everything on this screen shot is free as freely available on the net.

OK there are tho shots one is on the daily chart and another on the 4 h time chart.
How to interpret. It is fairly easy.

The dots are the entry points blue for buy and magenta for sell.

The line can be above or below the price. This is a stop loss level.

This is a modification of the Wilder volatility system (one of the best trend following systems ever, ask why it is not so popular). The modification consists in the smoothing by an innovative digital filters. The idea is freely available and elaborated by Russian hackers. For me this is one of the most advanced trend following strategies available outperforming even the famous able trend.

But this is not all. Every trend following strategy needs a trend filter. Nothing original. Yes but this is different. Traditionally the ADX is used do distinguish between trend and range environments. What we have here is a better version of the ADX. What is better?
This indicator is far more reactive than the ADX. Especially for the end of the trend, when it reverses after the peak this means that we have a correction. That is why I use two on the same window one is more reactive and one is less reactive. One measures the little bursts and trends and the other the bigger trend.

And that is not enough. We have the fractal dimension index. I can write a lot about it. But this indicator is also freely available. In a nutshell on this bigger times frames it can be analyzed as follows.

When we are in a red zone: we have a bigger probability than the next movement will be in the same direction (the right term is to say that the movement is persistent).

When we are in a blue zone: we have a bigger probability than the next movement will be in the opposite direction (the right term is to say that the movement is antipersistent).

This indicator estimates the fractal dimension of the time series. The times series in the market have a fractal dimension. I know folks this becomes a little complicated. So look at he price the more linear it is the more it is closer to the 1 (one dimension). The more jagged the more it is closer to 2 (tho dimension), in fact the price can never be 2 dimensional because it cannot close itself.

The medium line is 1.5. This is the fractal dimension of the Brownian motion. The probability is 50 % for the next movement to be in either up and down.

In fact it has been mathematically proven that the time series in the Forex market have the so called long term memory. That means that what happens today and what has happened on the past affects the future in a non linear way and complex way.

So a further enhancement of this indicator is the Hurst difference indicator. This indicator has been developed by a friend of mine and is also free (in the modern sens of face book of course).
I am particularly happy that I have contributed to the discussions that have led to the discovery of this indicator. So this is a very particular indicator. This is seismic meter of the market.
So when you see a peak you have to know that something important is happening or is about to happen that will affect the market. Often it is a confirmation of a break-out (in fact a valid break out is accompanied by a transition from the blue dimension to the red dimension: I call it a fractal break-out and this has nothing to do with the fractals of Bill Williams). This pattern is a new and has been documented for the first time some years ago in the forum TSD (where you can find most of the indicators).

Finally we have an advanced oscillator. In fact I use two indicators in one window:
One is a modified polarized fractal efficiency PFE. The other is really the best oscillator ever (in fact not a true oscillator) this is a SSA (singular spectrum analyses tuned to extract the oscillatory component of the time series). And it is interpreted as a regular oscillator in the trend following strategies. We buy or sell in the direction of the trend only.

We have a Bollinger band but they are not really necessary in the big time frames. And finally there is a very fast digital filter changing color. This one particularly is not free its name is gauss filter and it is available in the Elite section of the forum TSD. But there are some other indicators that do the same job sometimes even better.